Ice3

The value of the seasonal forecast identifies for a specific period when and how to plan routes for ships and personnel. Reducing costs and risks by effectively communicating optimum scenario planning.

PolArctic created a proprietary algorithm that can forecast when and where sea ice will be present in a more timely and accurate manner than Arctic government agencies. Our consulting services focus on quantifying sea ice risk to vessels along route, and can scale from an inlet to pan arctic regions. We incorporate climate change variables and trends to provide answers to clients planning Arctic voyages with confidence.

Shown below is PolArctic’s seasonal forecast completed in mid-June estimating sea ice presence from June - October 2022. White to blue colors represent the likelihood of sea ice above the threshold for the United States National Snow and Ice Data Center Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) identification, which is ~15% sea ice in a 4 km x 4 km pixel.

White is a very high probability of ice that would be identified in the MASIE product. The gray-blue shows probabilities of sea ice in the area between 50% and 99%; light blue goes from 50% to a low probability of sea ice; and dark blue is open water. The green color identifies land.

The seasonal forecast for ice extent was completed for the first report in June; and showed fantastic results several months in advance of the ice minimum in September. The PolArctic forecast was for a higher than average sea ice extent in the region - although not as high a sea ice extent as in 2021. The figure (next page) shows the sea ice extent forecasted by PolArctic in green; and the observed MASIE data in orange; other years (2006-2021) are shown in blue-pink colors; and the overall average is a bold gray line.

Forecasts can be delivered daily through a custom hosted website, as a PDF download. Custom requests can include current sea ice extent, sea ice concentration, POLARIS route calculations, trends and analytics, daily forecasts at requested intervals, and forecasted sea ice conditions at various sites.

Additional examples of sea ice analysis PolArctic has done in the past for clients are shown below. Please reach out if there is anything you have questions on or would like additional information on regarding our capabilities and services.